It was 8 years ago today. I had visited a good friend of mine and was traveling home from St. Louis, MO. I took a bit of a detour to go look at a motorcycle I had been checking out online. The dealer happened to be in St. Louis so I decide to do some window shopping. It was a Sunday morning. Probably around 8 am so I knew they would be closed, but I was hoping to get a glimpse of the bike in the window.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we’ve seen first hand how world events can affect the markets here in the United States. We’ve seen lots of market volatility since the beginning of the year. But guess what? The market is always volatile. And the reason for that is many investors make all their decisions based on emotion. And by doing this they blur the lines between volatility and risk. Risk and volatility are not the same thing. In fact, they aren’t even remotely related.
The secret to investing is complex. There is no silver bullet, there is no pill to take, there is no hot new stock, etc. Everyday we are bombarded by advertisers trying to sell us quick fixes to complex problems.
Happy New Year! It's that time of year when many of us resolve to change things for the coming year. We make a list of goals that we plan to stick to for the remainder of the following year. That’s great. What's not great is that the overwhelming majority of us don't stick to those goals. I can't actually prove why but my theory is that most of us have goals that create deprivation. Meaning our goal includes depriving ourselves of something we really like doing.
Let's Make A Deal! (With your R&S Pension)
It depends on your goals, your long term financial plan, your age even factors into things here. Let's just run through these options real quick.
Many of you are blessed to be employed at a cooperative that offers a defined benefit pension plan that provides you with a lump sum payment or a monthly pension payment for life when you retire. Congratulations! Such plans are uncommon today. Many of you will face a challenging decision at retirement. Should you take the lump sum payout or should you take the monthly annuity payment for the rest of your life and, in some cases, the life of your spouse and beneficiaries as well?
In the Book of Genesis, God gives Adam and Eve authority over the earth, forbidding them of only one thing. They are forbidden from tasting the fruit of the knowledge of good and evil. And for a few moments, their innocence is perfect. Then it happens. They taste the fruit and commit the original transgression. And after that, everything bad and wrong with earthly life suddenly enters the world: sin, shame, struggle, sickness and death. They only made one little mistake, but it was the only mistake they couldn't afford to make.
As I write this blog in February 2023, the last 14 months have given us a master class on how inflation can affect retirement planning and your purchasing power in general. Probably the biggest misconception I see when talking to retirees or soon to be retirees is that they worry about losing their "money" in retirement but they don't worry about losing their purchasing power.
It's January 23, 2023 and all the media pundits are trying to predict a recession as if they have any idea about anything at all. In my opinion, and by definition, the American economy was and is already in a mild recession. Let's define what a recession is and what the Gross Domestic Product is and what this means to you. Then we will talk about tips to help you through a recession. And before we start, I urge you not to panic. Recessions are common and often they are exactly what can cure a struggling economy. They are NOT to be feared!
Since 1948, there have been 10 Bear markets U.S. excluding the one we are in right now. The average number of years from the peak of the Bear market to the recovery, meaning the time it took for the S&P 500 to climb back to its previous highs was 3.9 years and the median/midpoint was 2.7 years. On five of those occasions, the market recovered in 2 years or less! In other words, market downturns feel much longer than they actually are.
The co-ops are a great place to work, no doubt about it, and I'm sure you love your job but would you do it for free? Because if you are considering retirement soon and wondering if you should retire this year or next year that may be exactly what you are doing. One thing I've found that people totally disregard when they think about retirement is interest rates. Interest rates directly affect your R&S Pension amounts and the dollar amount between retiring this year versus next year could mean that you end up working for free when you could have retired.
Many of you will contemplate retirement this year and despite what the news is telling you, if you have a pension plan sometimes referred to as a defined benefit plan at your current employer, this could be a great time to retire. Most pension/defined benefit plans give you the option of taking a series of lifetime monthly payments or a one time lump sum cash payment. This is not a decision to take lightly or a decision to make quickly. This decision will affect you and your family for decades and even generations to come. And it has tax implications!
As if we don't have enough to worry about in our day to day lives, along comes the 24/7 financial "news" cycle to fan the flames and magnify any fears we have about our retirement money and our investments. They are relentless with their clickbait and flat out false narratives. So what are we to do? First let's understand the function of the financial "news" cycle.
The past two years have been the most terrifying years for investors since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. First the pandemic, next a bitterly partisan presidential election and most recently a 40 year high inflation spike. You wouldn't be human if you haven't experienced market volatility fatigue and exhaustion at some point. I know I have. You might also not be human if after two years of this chaos you didn't want to ditch your financial plan and move all your investments to cash for "safety" and to get some rest from the constant volatility.
Without a doubt this is the number one question and concern I hear from people in regards to retirement. So let's talk about this and see if you can retire and have enough money to retire without running out. I think these are questions I can answer with a certain amount of confidence and hopefully I can give you some clarification in the process.
